Many have said Uganda has been too slow in propelling itself into oil production after discovering oil in 2006. Others - mainly oil
companies – have insisted Kenya could be the first oil producer in East Africa. Pressure
from the same oil companies – Elly Karuhanga, President Tullow Uganda – has
been growing for government to issue production licenses. All that,
understandable as it may be, is seemingly not going to let the government barge
from it taking its time, including completing an oil refinery. Meanwhile, the
expectations from Ugandans continue to grow. With all this, the government
seeks to first get the refinery project off the ground. So as the compensation process
goes on in the 29 square kilometer piece of land for the refinery, in Kabale, Hoima District, the final six firms and consortia bidding to build the refinery have been released. The diverse list is not dominated by Chinese companies as
earlier speculated. So what? You may ask. Well, these firms want to be part of
an infrastructure project, that if economical enough, could see a drop in fuel
prices and propel Uganda to be self-sufficient, partly tilting the Balance of Payments. According to Bank of Uganda statistics, the value of oil imports in 2012 increased to USD1bn from USD800m in 2011.
The China Petroleum and Pipeline Bureau (CPP) consortium was
first on the list. Projections would indicate that this consortium at best, includes a host of Chinese companies involved in the petroleum production value
chain. CPP, is also a subsidiary of the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation
(CNPC) which is placing itself a global oil producer. CNPC has assets of over
USD480bn more than twenty times the size of Uganda’s GDP. Chinese companies
more often than not have the finances from their development banks to spend on
big infrastructure projects. Cheap financing is understandable because it doesn’t
weigh heavily on the refinery once completed. Notably however, refineries in Chad and Niger,
all with a 40percent stake from Chinese companies, in 2012 were operating below
capacity as government and the companies failed to agree on oil prices.
From Japan – Ugandans drive lots of Toyota’s from the
country – is the Marubeni Corporation,
which is the only firm listed on the six. In other-words, it is only the one
single company that did not submit a bid as part of a consortium. Internet
searches and the company website describe it as a major player in the
construction, exportation and marketing of oil and gas projects. It is a conglomerate that has major investments in Health, transportation, industrial
machinery, energy, mineral resources, ICT, Finance and Real Estate among
others. It is currently part of refinery projects in Kazakhstan, Qatar and
Kuwait. In 2012 however, the company was forced pay USD54m in fines after violating U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (“FCPA”) in a Nigerian LNG Plant construction project.
Ever heard of Petrofac? Well, Petrofac apparently spent $1.5m
(£1m) on a private jet for the boss plus $189,000 on client entertainment
according to a story written by UK’s Independent. That aside, Petrofac a UK company, registered in
Jersey, USA, also submitted a bid with a consortium. Petrofac is involved in
various infrastructure projects in the oil and gas sector in Algeria, Tunisia
and Malaysia. Its strength is in the petrochemicals segment, which is usually
an offshoot of refining. In September 2013, Petrofac led a consortium that won
a deal to construct a petrochemicals plant in Kazakhstan.
Russia is a power
house in the oil and gas sector. Its companies, like Roseneft and Gazpromm have
proven to be major players in Europe. Well, it is rather not surprising that a
consortium led RT – General Resources has also expressed interest in the
Ugandan refinery. RT – General Resources is a subsidiary of the Russian state
corporation – Rostec. Rostec, is also known to be involved in the businesses of firearms, and in October 2013, signed a USD1bn arms deal with the Angolan Government.
They also service and supply Russian made helicopters. In
Natural resources, they’ve mining activities in Zimbabwe. Interestingly of all
the companies/consortia that placed bids for the refinery, RT – General Services
is the only one that issued a statement eventually picked up by the news wires.
Their consortium includes VTB Capital, the lending arm of the VTB Group a
leading Russian financial services – including banking – provider. It is
60percent owned by the Russian Government. Tatneft, another Russian company, is involved in the entire value chain from exploration to marketing, is also part
of the consortium. A point to ponder on though is a statement in the Russian
media outlet RT, which reveals that Andrey Korobov, the General Director of RT
– Global Resources said “The consortium aims to recoup the money spent on the
project in a short time due to the high oil price.”
As South Korea ponders on the next move to be made the young
North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un their companies have been making inroads in
Africa. Samsung has pitted itself against Japanese Companies like Panasonic,
Sony and Olympus on one hand and Apple on the other. This time, the
largest oil refiner in South Korea SK Energy – a subsidiary of the SK Group - has also put in a bid with a consortium of companies for the Ugandan refinery.
Korean media has been reporting declining fortune at home explaining why it has
been looking for opportunities in countries like Australia.
The SK Group has eight subsidiaries in just the petroleum value chain.
Know a country called Iran? Of course you do. Well, this has
nothing to do with Nuclear Weapons but has everything to do with it. In September
2012, there was an EU embargo on Iranian oil imports; that limited any business
performed by international companies with ties in the EU. In that month, Vitol a
Swiss company, the largest and most aggressive energy and commodities trading
company, admitted – well kinda – to have traded some Iranian oil.
Okay, if that is complex, remember the famous Iraq UN oil-for-food-program? Vitol also in 2007 pleaded guilty to theft and paying kickbacks to Iraq under
this program. It agreed to pay a fine of USD17.3m. So why are we talking about
Vitol? It is also leading a consortium of companies that want to construct an
oil refinery. Vitol [http://www.vitol.com/] is also vertically integrated – involved in the entire oil value chain.
As the Uganda government deals with compensation of Ugandans
occupying the proposed refinery land, it now also has to go through a process
of finding the best possible partners in the oil refinery. One of these
consortia named above will have a 60percent in the refinery of about
60,000barrels per day. In an article I wrote for The CEO Magazine – Honorary mention in the 2012 ACME Oil and Gas reporting awards – a Norwegian expert told me:
“Worldwide, there are more than 600 refineries with different solutions for state involvement based on history, economics and politics. Each situation must be evaluated on its own merits, and I am confident that Uganda will find a solution which serves the country well,” - Sverre Brydøy a consultant with IPAN [The International Petroleum Associates Norway (IPAN), a consulting firm with expertise in exploitation of oil and gas including refinery models.]
In the same article, Dr Keith Myers [previously worked for
BP and rose to the level of Senior Commercial Advisor until 2000, when he quit. He now offers advisory
services through Richmond Energy Partners – which he founded – to investors and
oil and gas companies.] also noted;
“I assume that the GOU will wish to have its share of the capital costs paid by others. The providers of capital will want a considerable degree of control over how the refinery operates until their risk capital is repaid. The challenge comes in aligning purely commercial objectives with a political agenda that may compromise profits from the commercial partner's perspective. Refinery joint ventures between State Enterprises and commercial investors work best where objectives are aligned, but the relationships are never easy.”
Great analysis Keith. (From an ACME friend ...)
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